PER - COVID-19 IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Covid-19 in perspective:

Until today (6. April 2020) the Covid-19 pandemic has infected almost 1.3 million people and taken 70,765 lives worldwide according to official reporting (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries). 

In comparison, the WHO estimates that a typical annual seasonal influenza causes on average about 290,000 to 650,000 fatalities every year worldwide. According to WHO estimates the ongoing 2019 to 2020 annual seasonal flu pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2) and not including covid-19) is expected to infect 800 million people and to take 450,000 to 1.2 million lives. Way to go for Covid-19.

The ‘Spanish Flu’ from 1918 to 1920 infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide (about a quarter of the world's population at the time) and had a death toll of anywhere between 20 to 50 million, possibly even up to 100 million.

My own uncle died of influenza in January 1958, only 28 years old, during another worldwide pandemic. He left behind his wife and two young daughters, 3 and 6 years old. That influenza, which became known as ‘The Asian flu’, was a mutation and combination of avian and human flu strains, and it also originated in China (Guizhou in Southwestern China) in February 1957. During 1957 and 1958 it became a worldwide pandemic, and it is estimated that it took 1 to 4 million lives worldwide. It was contained when a vaccine was developed in 1958.

The 'Asian Flu’ virus mutated and the new strain appeared in 1968 as ‘The Hong Kong Flu’. It is also estimated to have killed between 1 and 4 million people worldwide in 1968 - 1969.

In 2009 - 2010 we had the so-called ‘Swine Flu’, which was a virus similar to the one that caused ‘The Spanish Flu’ from 1918 to 1921. It is estimated that it infected between 700 million to 1.4 billion worldwide, i.e. more than the ‘Spanish Flu’, but the mortality rate is estimated to be 150,000 to 575,00 people.

(Main sources: WHO and Wikipedia)

Are our governments overreacting?

In any case, let us hope that a vaccination will soon be available to prevent covid-19 so that we can return to a ‘normal’ daily life style again! My bet is that a vaccine may soon be developed in a small country on the Eastern end of the Mediterranean, but whoever is first with the patent, I wish that I owned many shares in that company :-) 

Stay home, stay safe and stay healthy

Per -
Bangkok - 06 04 2020